In recent years, driven by the rapid development of related industries such as new energy and new materials, the domestic dimethyl carbonate industrial chain has achieved steady progress, with continuous growth in production capacity and output, and expanding industry scale. However, the industry also faces phased challenges during its development, with overcapacity occurring in some periods. This is mainly caused by multiple factors such as supply-demand imbalance in the market and rising production process costs. The growth rate of downstream industries has failed to keep pace with the expansion of dimethyl carbonate production capacity, leading to a long-term supply-demand imbalance in the industrial chain and a gradual transmission of industry profits to the downstream.

In 2025, the expansion pace of the domestic dimethyl carbonate industry slowed down compared with previous years, with newly added production capacity scattered relatively. Some regions have become core areas for industry expansion. In terms of process routes, the industry is gradually moving towards diversification, showing an obvious trend of industrial upgrading. At the same time, the industry entered a stage of in-depth development of extending and supplementing the industrial chain. The operating stability of newly put-into-production devices during the year was strong, and the capacity utilization rate increased compared with previous years. However, the overall production capacity was still significantly higher than downstream consumer demand, and the characteristics of oversupply ran through the whole year. Affected by factors such as centralized maintenance of devices, market prices once rose periodically. Subsequently, with the resumption of device production and stable operation of downstream industries, prices gradually fell back to a reasonable range.

In terms of the downstream demand pattern, the core application fields of dimethyl carbonate showed differentiated development trends. As one of its main downstream sectors, polycarbonate has maintained strong development resilience with continuous upgrading of process technology in recent years, and its demand remained stable; the demand in the electrolyte solvent field continued to accelerate along with the development of related industries, becoming an important driving force for the growth of dimethyl carbonate consumption, with a steady increase in consumption proportion; the demand in the developer field fluctuated to a certain extent due to the external environment and economic situation. On the whole, the development changes in various downstream fields jointly affect the supply-demand pattern and development direction of the dimethyl carbonate industry.

Looking ahead, the overcapacity situation in the dimethyl carbonate industry is expected to improve compared with 2025, but the supply-demand pattern will still have phased fluctuations. Significant monthly supply-demand differences may occur in individual months, thereby exerting corresponding impacts on market prices. From the perspective of seasonality and industry rules, the supply-demand characteristics of different quarters will show differentiation: in some quarters, affected by the dual factors of centralized device maintenance and boosted downstream demand, prices are expected to rise; in some quarters, due to factors such as the decline in downstream capacity utilization rate and the difficulty in converting new production capacity into effective demand, prices may fall slightly, but the fluctuation range is expected to be relatively moderate.

In the long run, with the continuous upgrading of industry technology, optimization of process routes, and gradual expansion of emerging downstream application fields, the dimethyl carbonate industry will gradually get rid of the constraints of phased supply-demand imbalance and transform towards high-quality development. At the same time, the industry will further optimize the production capacity layout, eliminate inefficient production capacity, and promote industrial structure upgrading. The future development is expected to gradually become stable and orderly, and the overall competitiveness of the industry will continue to improve.